Monday, June 16, 2008

More trouble in McCain-land

The political wonks are speaking. They're consulting election patterns. It doesn't look so hot for McCain.

Specifically, the above linky-winky takes you to history professor Alan Lichtman's "13 keys to the White House." Basically, if you OR your party has problems with one of these keys, your chances are pretty much--what's the word?--fucked.

Key 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House than it did after the previous midterm elections.

2006 elections anyone?

Key 2: Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.

Remember Rudy? Yosemite Mitt? Mike Huckabee--who WON IOWA?!?!? Heck, remember Ron Paul? (Don't worry if you don't remember Duncan Hunter.)

Key 3: Incumbency. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.

Key 4: Third party. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.

McCain has no problems here. Bob Barr's Libertarian Party bid doesn't count.

Key 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

I suspect the big "R" is approaching, and this may be another strike against McCain.

Key 6: Long-term economy. Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

Most people will ignore the economic jibber-jabber and say that the economy is pretty sucky right now.

Key 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

Yes, they did. (You can argue the merit of these changes, or lack thereof.)

Key 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

There really should've been more, IMO, given the disasters of the past eight years. But never mind.

Key 9: Scandal. The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

Let's make it succinct: This is a strike against McCain.

Key 10: Foreign/military failure. The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

...And another strike against McCain.

Key 11: Foreign/military success. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

...And yet ANOTHER! Man, what are Bush and Cheney trying to do? Make sure the guy doesn't win?

Key 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

McCain has this going for him. Yay!

Key 13: Challenger charisma. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

He's running against Barack Obama. Enough said.

No wonder John McCain looks like he wants to go home.